North American markets are broadly stronger this morning, mainly due to news overnight from China that February’s year-over-year exports soared by the most in three years, far outpacing what economists had forecast.. Reassuring comments from a former European Commission President are also soothing concerns over Greece’s debt problems, measured by debt default swaps which are becoming increasingly less expensive. Oil climbed after the EIA’s inventories report which showed a smaller than expected increase in crude and a significant drop in gasoline supplies. The TSX is up 67 pts. The Dow is up 28 pts.

The Canadian dollar looks poised to break through recent highs with another 40 basis point gain this morning to US$.9783. Bond yields have climbed across the curve with the 5-year Canada yield up to 2.83% and the 10-year to 3.55%. Gold is up $3.20 to US$1125.50/oz. Oil is up $1.23 to US$82.71/barrel, also coming very close to surpassing its highest level since the fall of ’08.

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the indexes recent bear-market lows. Traditionally known as the “paper” anniversary, this one is true to form with the US adjusted monetary base (aka. the sum of currency in circulation) having grown a staggering $600 billion over the last year. That said, markets are hardly celebrating this morning with US stocks being led slightly higher by heavyweights AT&T and Verizon, while the TSX is being weighed down by a retreat in the energy sector. Bank of Nova Scotia rounded off earnings season for the Canadian financials by beating average forecasts with 17% profit growth. Speculation is starting to mount on possible dividend hikes for the banks after a two year hiatus. The TSX is down 31 pts. The Dow is up 19 pts.

The Loonie continues to ride the recent winning streak with another 19 bps gain this morning to US$.9750, just half a cent shy of its highest level since July ‘08. Bonds are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2..78% and the 10-year 3.51%. Gold is down $5 to US$1119/oz. Oil is off 49 cents to US$81.38/barrel.

The TSX index opened in positive territory this morning, building on last week’s broad based gains which pushed it to its highest close in over a year and a half. Shares of heavyweight Research in Motion are leading the index higher after being upgraded by an analyst. The energy sector is also strong as crude oil climbs. It should be a fairly quiet week on the data front with Friday’s US retail sales and Canadian employment report being the main points of interest. The TSX is up 17 pts. The Dow is flat.

The Canadian dollar continues to appreciate, rising another 20 bps to US$.9722 this morning. Bonds have stabilized with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.79% and the 10-year 3.49%. Gold is down $13.60 to US$1121.70/oz. Oil is up twenty cents to US$81.70/barrel.

North American markets are powering forward this morning after US employment data was better than expected, sending the TSX index to its highest level since early January. A close this afternoon at the indexes current level would be a new high for this bull market. Payrolls in the US declined by 36,000 in February, roughly half of average estimates, while the unemployment figure remained unchanged at 9.7%. Analysts had expected that major storms last month would have more of a negative effect on employment. Canada’s finance minister yesterday tabled his budget with no new fiscal stimulus measures and a five year plan to balance the budget. The plan is aggressive but credible, and would make Canada the first of the G-7 countries to eliminate its deficit. The TSX is up 131 pts. The Dow is up 84 pts.

The Canadian dollar was unchanged after the budget release, but is rising on the back of the employment data this morning. The Loonie is up a quarter-cent to US$.9729. Bond yields continue to climb this morning with the 5-year Canada yield up to 2.77% and the 10-year to 3.47%. The 5-year yield is now at its high for the year, which may well put some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Gold is up $4.40 to US$1138/oz. Oil is up $1.36 to US$81.57/barrel.

Markets are relatively quiet this morning without any major data to push things in either direction. Jobless claims in the US fell by 29,000 last week, in line with expectations, while productivity in the US in the fourth quarter surged at a 6.9% annual rate as companies continued to cut payrolls as demand stabilized. With companies operating at bare minimum of employees, any increase in output will likely be matched with an increase in hiring over the coming months. TD bank reported profits that doubled from a year ago, pushing the shares to within pennies of a new 52-week high. Greece announced the sale of some

€3-5 billion in ten year bonds, which was oversubscribed by about three times the size of the issue, a positive sign as they try to get their finances in order. The TSX is down 33 pts. The Dow is up 11 pts.

The Loonie has been trading around the break-even point this morning, currently 4 bps higher at US$.9695. The five-year Canada bond yield continues to rise, hitting 2.71% this morning for the first time since mid-January, while the 10-year is unchanged at 3.41%. Gold is down $14 to US$1129.30/oz. Oil is down 92 cents to US$79.95/barrel.

North American indexes are rising this morning as the expected announcement from Greece and positive US economic data buoy optimism that growth in the global economy will continue to gain traction. Greece announced an additional 4.8 billion euro in spending cuts and tax increases as the country tries to reign in its deficit and garner support from the European Union. The US economy lost the fewest number of jobs in two years in February according to the ADP poll, while the ISM non-manufacturing index expanded at a faster pace that even the most optimistic forecasts. Commodity prices are climbing on the news. Royal Bank bucked the recent trend of positive earnings announcements as it missed average forecasts on continuing losses at its US operations. That said, profits still rose 35% from year ago levels. The TSX is up 45 pts. The Dow is up 52 pts.

The Canadian dollar is climbing again amid the good news and as the market speculates interest rates may rise sooner rather than later. The Loonie is up 65 bps to US$.9713. Bond yields are on the rise, with the 5-year Canada up to 2.62% and the 10-year to 3.45%. Gold is up $3.30 to US$1140.70/oz. Oil is up 57 cents to US$80.25/barrel.

North American markets are broadly stronger this morning, led by the banks here in Canada. Overnight, India announced significant increases in manufacturing and exports which caused emerging markets shares to rise, while Greek debt is rebounding on speculation that the country will announce additional deficit cuts that may open the door for an aid package by the European Union. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged this morning, but signalled that inflation and economic output have been higher than expected, raising expectations for a rate hike early in the second half of the year. The Australian central bank hiked rates by another quarter point overnight. Bank of Montreal followed in the footsteps of National and CIBC with strong first quarter numbers, beating average estimates by 10%. The TSX is up 88 pts. The Dow is up 41 pts.

The Canadian dollar climbed three-quarters of a penny to US$.9678 on the “less-dovish” comments by the Bank of Canada. Bond yields climbed to 2.55% for the 5-year Canada and 3.41% for the ten. Oil is up $1.25 to US$79.95/barrel. Gold is up $16 to US$1134.40/oz.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/02/interest-rate-decision-bank-of-canada.html

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has repeatedly pledged to keep interest rates at record lows until the middle of this year. (Tom Hanson/Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada is keeping its benchmark lending rate at a record low of 0.25 per cent, reiterating on Tuesday its conditional commitment to hold rates steady until the middle of this year.

Although it held the overnight lending rate steady, the bank acknowledged the recovery appears to be proceeding at a better pace than it had anticipated.

“The level of economic activity in Canada has been slightly higher than the bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report,” the bank said in announcing the rate decision.

“Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.”

The Canadian economy grew at a strong five per cent pace in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada reported Monday. Robust growth like that makes it likely that the bank will move to hike rates and rein in inflation sooner rather than later.

After shrinking by 2.6 per cent in 2009, the bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011.

In its statement, the bank repeated its mild concern over the risk that the elevated Canadian dollar presents to the recovery.

“On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength of the Canadian dollar,” the bank said.

It is set to release its next decision on interest rates on April 20.

The TSX is climbing again this morning after finishing February with the strongest performance of the twenty largest indexes by market-cap in the world. Strong economic data is fuelling matters this morning, as the US ISM-manufacturing index expanded for the seventh consecutive month and personal spending climbed for the fourth month in a row. The employment component of the ISM index was encouraging with its fastest growth in five years.

Canada’s Gross Domestic Production grew at a 5% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, outpacing expectations by a wide margin. No change in interest rates is expected when the Bank of Canada convenes tomorrow, although the data will add to pressure. Copper jumped the most in almost a year on supply concerns after the massive earthquake in Chile. The TSX is up 70 pts. The Dow is up 69 pts.

Bond yields climbed on the economic data, pushing the 5-year yield up to 2.49% and the 10-year to 3.42%. The Loonie is also benefiting with a half cent gain to US$.9556. Gold is down $3.40 to US$1115.50/oz. Oil is flat at US$79.67/barrel.

US markets dropped at the open, erasing yesterday’s gains after economic data surprised on the downside and rating agency Moody’s suggested it may cut Greece’s sovereign debt rating. The TSX is in positive territory on the back of the banks after CIBC and National Bank reported better than expected first-quarter income. Initial jobless claims in the US climbed by 22,000 last week, while orders for durable goods (excluding aircraft) unexpectedly slipped. TSX is up 12 pts.

The Dow is down 168 pts.

The Loonie fell more than a full penny this morning as debt concerns causes money to flow into US dollars. The C$ is down $1.11 to US$.9377. Bonds continue to climb on the economic data and after yesterday’s comments from Bernanke, pushing the 5-year Canada yield down to 2.50% and the 10-year to 3.41%. Oil is down $2.70 to US$77.30/barrel. Gold is up $2 to US$1099.20/oz.