Archive for October, 2009

Fixed or variable decision “much closer to call”, bank report says

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

| Monday, 26 October 2009

While variable-rate mortgages continue to beat out fixed-rates when it comes to cost savings, the gap between the two is likely to become closer due to the economic environment, a new bank report says.

“Fixed rates were advantageous during only two recent periods – through the late 1970s and briefly in the late 1980s; in both cases, ahead of a period of rising interest rates, as is the case now,” the report by BMO economists Douglas Porter and Benjamin Reitzes said.

Variable rate products have proven the better option 82 per cent of the time since 1975, Porter and Reitzes wrote, and forecast that variables will continue to remain cheaper than fixed rate mortgages. This is in part due to the rising Canadian dollar, which has reduced the Bank of Canada’s short-term need to raise the key interest rate.

On the other side, the report argued the economic recovery – and the expected rise in interest rates next year – has potentially caused “one of those rare periods when a fixed rate turns out to be the superior choice.” It also pointed out that negotiated rates (as opposed to posted rates) make fixed and variable products closer to call.

Financial Update – Oct 27, 2009

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Mixed markets this morning as US indexes get a boost from a third consecutive monthly increase in home prices, while the TSX is pulled lower by weakness in the financial sector. A downtick in consumer confidence in the US is also weighing on matters. IBM is leading the Dow higher with a 1.5% advance after announcing an additional US$5 billion share buyback program. Heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar announced yesterday that it plans to hire back some of the recently laid-off employees as sales get back on track, one of the few glimmers of hope we’ve seen in the US employment situation. The TSX is down 57 pts. The Dow is up 47 pts.

The Canadian dollar is flat this morning at US$.9379 after getting punished the last few sessions by a string of comments by BoC exec’s, coupled with yesterday’s strength in the US dollar. Bond yields are a touch lower after the consumer confidence data, with the 5-year Canada bond yielding 2.78% and the 10-year 3.52%. Gold is down $3.80 to US$1039/oz. Oil is 50 cents higher at US$79.19/barrel.

Financial Update – Oct 26, 2009

Monday, October 26th, 2009

North American markets are being pulled higher this morning in the wake of gains in European and Asian shares overnight. Positive earnings surprises from Corning and Electrolux, coupled with GDP numbers from South Korea whose economy grew at a stunning 2.9% pace in the third quarter, are behind the uptick. A weak US dollar is helping prop up commodity prices, as is a report showing copper demand from China surged 29% in September. Thursday’s US GDP numbers will be the main economic data on tap this week, with decent growth expected for the first time in several quarters. The TSX is up 80 pts. The Dow is up 81 pts.

The Loonie is down a touch to US$.9467 this morning as BoC Governor Mark Carney continues to threaten intervention to stop the ascent. Bond yields are up slightly to 2.81% for the 5-year Canada and 3.54% for the ten. Gold is down $2.80 to US$1053.40/oz. Oil is down 18 cents to US$80.32/barrel.

Financial Update – Oct 23, 2009

Monday, October 26th, 2009

Markets are selling off this morning, despite some upbeat economic and profit reports, as valuation ratios for the S&P500 reach their highest levels in several years. Existing home sales in the US jumped by 9.4% in September, far more than average expectations, while the number of unsold homes on the market fell to the lowest level in a year-and-a-half, a level that is consistent with a stabilization in prices. Amazon and Microsoft blew away profit estimates and have seen sharp increases in their share prices this morning, while Burlington Northern, the largest US railroad, missed forecasts and led a sell-off in industrial shares. The TSX is down 139 pts. The Dow is down 91 pts.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure as Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney turned up the volume on the possibility of intervention in foreign exchange markets to stem the tide of a rising Loonie. The C$ is down 39 bps to US$.9505 this morning. Bond yields ticked higher on the US home sales report, with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.77% and the 10-year 3.50%. Oil is down a dollar to US$80.20/barrel. Gold is off $3.90 to US$1054.70/oz.

Financial Update – Oct 22, 2009

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

North American markets opened on the weak side this morning after China revealed that its economy grew “only” 8.9% in the third quarter, missing average estimates by 0.1%. Concerns are raised that they might have to begin tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later. A gauge of Leading Economic Indicators in the US climbed more than forecast in September, rising for the sixth straight month and indicating the economy should keep expanding at least through the first quarter of 2010. McDonalds shares are leading US indexes higher after the company reported better than expected profits on strong sales growth. The TSX is down 52 pts. The Dow has climbed into positive territory with a 19 pt gain.

The Loonie has slipped half a cent this morning to US$.9508 as the greenback strengthened overnight. Canadian bonds yield 2.73% for the 5-year Canada and 3.45% for the ten. Gold is down $10 to US$1054.70/oz. Oil is off 48 cents to US$80.88/barrel after briefly touching $82 yesterday afternoon.

Financial Update – Oct 21, 2009

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

North American markets are rising this morning as the wave of quarterly profit reports fuels optimism that an earnings recovery is underway that will justify the recent run-up in stock prices. Yahoo!, Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo and SanDisk each beat average estimates and are climbing this morning, following on the heels of Apple which reported blockbuster results after Monday’s close. Boeing is the laggard today after posting a larger than expected loss. Close to three-quarters of US companies that have announced their results are running ahead of expectations, with two-thirds of them reporting higher than expected revenue, meaning that it’s not just cost-cutting fuelling the fire. The TSX is up 24 pts. The Dow is up 51 pts. 

The Canadian dollar got walloped yesterday after Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney dumped cold water on speculation that we may follow on Australia’s heels with an interest rate hike. He reiterated that rates will stay on hold until at least June, and that the strong Loonie was offsetting much of the strength we are seeing in the global economy. After dipping below 95 cents yesterday, the C$ is up two-thirds of a cent this morning to US$.9575. Bond yields dropped after yesterdays announcement, with the 5-year Canada bond yielding 2.75% and the 10-year 3.47%. Gold is up $1.90 to US$1060.50/oz. Oil is up 65 cents to US$79.77/barrel.

Central Bank Holds Rate Steady

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Last Updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2009 | 9:28 AM ET

CBC News

The Bank of Canada opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.25 per cent on Tuesday.

“Recent indicators point to the start of a global recovery from a deep, synchronous recession,” the bank said in a statement accompanying the decision. “A recovery in economic activity is also under way in Canada,” the bank said.

Despite the burgeoning turnaround, the bank signalled that it was not yet time for a rate increase.

The bank loosely controls interest rates in the broader economy by setting the level at which lenders obtain money themselves. Central banks across the globe began aggressively cutting interest rates beginning late last year, in a desperate attempt to stimulate the economy.

As the international economy shows signs of turning the corner, there was some pressure to turn off the stimulus taps by raising rates and tightening the money supply.

Earlier in October, Australia did just that, becoming the first developed economy in the world to raise rates since the crisis began in late 2008.

‘There’s no way for the bank … to back away from that pledge”—CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld

But Canada’s central bank opted not to follow suit.

In its previous report, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney went to great pains to emphasize that the bank’s commitment to maintain its overnight lending rate was “conditional”.

That proviso remains in place. “Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target,” the bank said Tuesday.

Effectively, the bank has offered no hints that it plans on changing course any time soon. “There’s no way for the bank to single out some individual feature of the economy to back away from that pledge [to hold rates at 0.25 per cent],” CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld said in a note.

The bank did, however, temper its expectations for economic growth during the next two years. The Canadian economy is projected to grow by three per cent in 2010 and 3.3 per cent in 2011, the bank now says.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will have another opportunity to speak his mind later in the week, when the bank unveils its latest Monetary Policy Report on Thursday. That document should provide a more detailed breakdown of the Canadian economy.

Financial Update – Oct 19, 2009

Monday, October 19th, 2009

North American markets have started the week on a strong note as we wade into the thick of earnings season. More than one-quarter of S&P500 member companies will report their financial results this week, with publishing giant Gannet and circuit manufacturer Eaton beating estimates this morning. Texas Instruments and Apple report after the close today. Canadian heavyweight Potash is leading the TSX higher with a 5% gain after an analyst at Merrill Lynch suggested the company would be a logical takeover target for BHP Billiton and could command a 30% premium to its current valuation. The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and will likely reiterate its “on hold” status for interest rates. The TSX is up 36 pts. The Dow is up 95 pts.

The Canadian dollar is regaining ground as the greenback weakens, up a half-cent this morning to US$.9687. Bond yields stand at 2.82% for the 5-year Canada and 3.54% for the ten. Gold is up $4.30 to US$1055.80/oz. Oil is up 15 cents to US$78.70/barrel

Financial Update – Oct 16, 2009

Friday, October 16th, 2009

North American markets opened lower this morning after disappointing quarterly results from heavyweights General Electric and Bank of America. GE beat average bottom line estimates but revenue was clearly lacking, while Bank of America posted a $1 billion dollar loss due to increasing loan write-offs. Google and IBM both posted better than expected results after the market closed yesterday. Only 10% of S&P500 listed companies have reported Q3 earnings so far but the vast majority have surpassed average forecasts. A gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined last month which is also weighing on indexes. The TSX is down 40 pts. The Dow is off 104 pts.

The Canadian dollar is retreating after almost hitting 98 cents on Wednesday night. The US dollar is strengthening this morning due to the weak economic and profit reports, pushing the C$ down to US$.9633. Bond yields are down a touch to 2.85% for the 5-year Canada and 3.46% for the ten. Gold is flat at US$1051.10/oz. Oil prices have posted a strong weekly gain due to a weak US dollar, an unexpected drop in US fuel stockpiles, and a resumption of hostilities in Nigeria (the fifth largest supplier of crude to the US). Oil is off a quarter this morning to US$77.81/barrel.

Financial Update – Oct 14, 2009

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

North American markets surged at the open this morning after Intel’s rather impressive quarterly results yesterday afternoon were followed up this morning by equally positive numbers from JPMorgan. The qualitative aspects of both reports were also encouraging as growth was not driven by cost cutting but by increasing revenue. Intel’s sales topped estimates by more than $1 billion, and the company raised its 4th quarter outlook. Energy and base metal prices are being boosted by some positive data from China where September exports climbed 6.3% from the prior month, while money supply and foreign exchange reserves continue to soar. The inexorable decline in the greenback is also lifting prices. The TSX is up 111 pts. The Dow is up 117 pts. 

The Canadian dollar continues its path toward parity with the greenback, up another 30 bps this morning to US$.9719. Bond yields have climbed a few points, building on last week’s massive jump which prompted most of the Canadian banks to raise fixed mortgage rates yesterday. The 5-year Canada yields 2.86% and the 10-year 3.52%. Gold is a touch weaker at US$1061.70/oz after touching another new record yesterday. After trying and failing to break the $75 mark a few times this year, crude oil broke through this morning to stand at US$75.18/barrel.