Archive for November, 2009

Financial Update – Nov 30, 2009

Monday, November 30th, 2009

North American markets are modestly higher this morning as fear over fallout from the situation with Dubai World seems to be subsiding. The UAE central bank said it stands behind both local and foreign lenders, easing concern over more write-downs. Emerging markets staged an impressive rally overnight led by China’s Shanghai Composite Index. This morning’s Chicago-area manufacturing index climbed more than expected, a good precursor to tomorrow’s national figures. Canadian GDP rose a less-than-expected 0.4% in the third quarter, led by increasing capital expenditures and marking the official end of the recession. The TSX is up 55 pts. The Dow is flat.

The Canadian dollar is climbing after slipping for three consecutive days, up a half cent to US$.9472. Bond yield are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.38% and the 10-year 3.21%. Oil is up 45 cents to US$76.49/barrel. Gold is off $2.10 to US$1172.10/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 27, 2009

Friday, November 27th, 2009

The TSX is rebounding this morning, taking cue from an impressive rally in European equities overnight, while US markets opened lower as they play catch-up after watching yesterday’s action from the sidelines. Major banks are posting a decent recovery as potential damage is assessed following Dubai Worlds request to delay debt repayment. Royal Bank of Scotland, the largest underwriter of loans to the state-owned company, rallied 5% overnight. Today is Black Friday in the US, known as the day of the year on which retailers become profitable as holiday buying clicks into high gear. Obviously this season will be closely watched and preliminary results from this weekends shopping will start to come in early next week. The TSX is up 75 pts. The Dow is down 124 pts.

The US dollar continues to strengthen as concerns over emerging market debt pushes capital into the safety of T-bills. The Loonie is off 13 bps this morning to US$.9417. Canadian bonds are strong with the yield on the 5-year Canada sinking to 2.37% and the 10-year to 3.22%. If this persists we could see fixed mortgage rates slip again in the near future as the five-year yield is about 25 bps lower than it was just two weeks ago when rates were last adjusted. Gold has dropped $8.60 to US$1178.40/oz. Oil is down $2.15 to US$75.81/barrel.

Financial Update – Nov 26, 2009

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Normally a quiet day for equities as markets south of the border are closed for Thanksgiving, is anything but this morning after Dubai World, the state-owned development company, proposed to delay debt payments to creditors as it seeks to restructure some of its $60 billion in liabilities. Debt throughout the region is being re-priced on the news, having a significant effect on emerging markets worldwide. Financials are feeling the pinch as some of Dubai’s creditors include major banks such as Credit Suisse and HSBC. Canadian stocks are falling as risk is taken off the table and capital moves to the safety of bonds. The TSX is down 181 pts.

The Canadian dollar declined vs. the greenback as capital surges into US dollars. The Loonie is off 1.35 cents to US$.9430. Canadian bonds soared on the news, pushing the 5-year Canada yield down to 2.41% and the 10-year to 3.25%. Oil is down $1.73 to US$76.23/barrel. Gold is off just $1.50 to US$1185.50/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 25, 2009

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Markets are strong this morning ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US. A host of positive economic data is raising spirits, with consumer spending rising more than forecast and initial jobless claims plummeting to the lowest level in 14 months. Sales of new homes in the US also climbed to a 14 month high, while the number of unsold homes on the market hit a four-decade low. Every sector of the TSX is gaining ground and the index up 105 pts to 10,645, just a few points shy of its highest close this year. The Dow is up 45 pts and a close at this level would be a new 2009 high.

The Loonie took flight this morning on a weak greenback, and due to an announcement from Russia’s central bank that it is preparing to add Canadian dollars to its reserves. The Loonie is up three-quarters of a penny to US$.9529. Bonds jumped on the announcement due to the potential increase in demand, pushing the yield on the 5-year Canada down to 2.42% and the 10-year to 3.28%. Oil is up 88 cents to US$76.86/barrel. Gold soared $20 to US$1185.50/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 10, 2009

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

It’s fairly quiet on the wires this morning, with profit taking the order of the day after gains of close to 5% for both the TSX and the S&P500 in the last 5 trading days. The energy and gold sectors are leading the TSX lower this morning as the rally on both crude and bullion appears to be losing steam. Lower loan losses and rising profits at HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, is limiting the decline in financial shares. The TSX is down 85 pts. The Dow is down 8 pts.

The Loonie breached the 95 cent mark this morning, but has weakened since to US$.9493. Bond yields are down a touch to 2.70% for the 5-year Canada and 3.48% for the ten. Oil was briefly over $80, but has settled back to US$79.27/barrel. Gold is flat at US$1101.70/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 9, 2009

Monday, November 9th, 2009

North American markets took flight at the open after a weekend meeting of the G-20 resulted in a continuance of current economic stimulus measures. Every sector in both the TSX and the S&P500 are in the green, with metals and mining shares leading the way as gold continues to set new highs while the US dollar weakens. It will be a light week on the data front with this morning’s Canadian housing starts, which rose to the highest level this year, about the only major scheduled release. Earnings season is winding down with almost 450 of the S&P500 constituents now having reported 3rd quarter profits. Over 80% of those companies have met or exceeded estimates, setting a record for positive earnings surprises. The TSX is up 231 pts. The Dow is up 142 pts.

The Canadian dollar has also shot higher due to the weak greenback and higher commodity prices. It is up over 1.5 cents at last check to US$.9466.. Bond yields are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.72% and the 10-year 3.51%. Oil is up $2.37 to US$79.80/barrel. Gold is up $11.50 to US$1107.20/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 6, 2009

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Disappointing employment figures are weighing on the broader markets this morning, but at the same time fuelling the fire under gold which is lifting the TSX index. The US economy shed 190,000 positions last month, slightly more than expected, while the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2%, the highest level since 1983. The Canadian unemployment rate also climbed to 8.6% as 43,200 jobs were lost in October, however the headline figure is not as bad as it looks with all of the damage contained to part-time positions while full time employment climbed by 16,500. This data quells any speculation that interest rates will rise any time soon, and sent gold briefly over $1,100 due to increasing appeal of the metal as an alternative to low yielding, US dollar based investments. The TSX is up 27 pts. The Dow is down 13 pts.

The Canadian dollar fell on the employment data, slipping 39 bps to US$.9344. Bonds are unusually steady in light of these figures, with the 5-year Canada yield unchanged at 2.72% and the 10-year yield down just 1 bp to 3.52%. Oil is down $2.32 to US$77.30/barrel. Gold has settled back to US$1094.10/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 5, 2009

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

US indexes are quite strong this morning as positive economic data pushes stocks higher. All ten constituent sectors of the S&P500, and all 30 members of the Dow are climbing after jobless claims unexpectedly dropped while worker productivity climbed at the fastest pace in six years. The productivity figures suggest that companies will have to begin hiring sooner rather than later as output per employee gets stretched. Better than expected profits from Cisco, coupled with noticeably optimistic comments from the company’s CEO, are adding fuel to the fire this morning. The FOMC surprised no one by keeping rates steady yesterday, and reiterating their current policy “for an extended period”. The TSX is up 49 pts. The Dow is up 175 pts.

The Loonie rose to its highest level in a week as improving sentiment weighs on the “safe-haven” greenback. The C$ is up a quarter-cent to US$.9406 this morning. Bond yields climbed on the positive economic data, with the 5-year Canada yield up to 2.72% and the 10-year 3.53%. Gold is up $3 to US$1090.30/oz. Oil is up 24 cents to US$80.15/barrel.

Financial Update – Nov 4, 2009

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

The screens are almost universally green this morning as commodities benefit from a weak US dollar and financials rise on surging profits at Societe Generale, France’s second largest bank. ISM services sector figures were a tad weak this morning as the employment index weighed on the overall figure, however the leading indicator gauge of new orders climbed to the highest level in two years while the overall index posted its first back to back expansion since May 2008. Republican victories in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey are have also goosed business optimism.. Gold soared to a record yesterday after the IMF reported half of its bullion earmarked for sale had been shipped to India’s central bank in one large transaction. The pending sale had been overshadowing the market for some time. The FOMC will announce its monetary policy decisions at 11:15PST this morning. The TSX is up 112 pts. The Dow is up 119 pts.

The Loonie is stronger this morning at an even US$.9400 as the greenback weakens ahead of what is expected to be a continued accommodative announcement from the Fed. Bond yields rose slightly on the ISM data, with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.71% and the 10-year 3.47%. Oil is up 83 cents to US$80.43/barrel. Gold is up another $8..60 to a record $1093.50/oz.

Financial Update – Nov 2, 2009

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

We’ve got mixed markets this morning as decent economic data is offset by yesterday’s announcement that CIT Group, one of the US’s largest small-business lenders, has filed for bankruptcy protection. The move has serious implications for businesses that have borrowed from the company as they try to refinance in the current credit environment. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing index showed the sector expanded at its fastest pace since April 2006. Ford is helping lift US indexes after reporting its first operating profit in almost two years. News on tap this week include US government votes on health care and the extension of the home buyers tax credit, a policy announcement by the Fed, ISM services sector data, and Friday’s employment reports from both Canada and the US. The TSX is up 5 pts. The Dow is up 108 pts.

The Canadian dollar is rebounding from Friday’s lows, up two thirds of a cent to US$.9307. Bonds are relatively steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.69% and the 10-year 3.44%. Oil is up 93 cents to US$77.93/barrel. Gold has soared $19.70 to US$1060.10/oz.