Archive for January, 2010

Financial Update – Jan 27, 2010

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

North American markets declined shortly after the open as data on new home sales in the US was lower than expected, and ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement due later this morning. No move in interest rates is expected, and considering the Senate is set to vote tomorrow to decide whether or not Bernanke receives a second term as Fed Chair, it’s unlikely that anything in the announcement will even slightly rock the boat. President Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address at 6pm this evening. Profit reports have been largely positive with companies such as Johnson & Johnson, United Technologies and Caterpillar delivering higher than expected numbers, although the revenue rebound remains sluggish. The TSX is down 36 pts. The Dow is down 29 pts.

The Canadian dollar is down 35 bps to US$.9379 as the rush into US dollars continues. The yield on the one-month US T-Bill is actually negative this morning due to the surge in demand and reduced supply as the Treasury Dept. tries to force money into longer dated issues. Bond yields have come off in Canada to 2.39% for the 5-year bond and 3.30% for the ten. Gold is down $5.30 to US$1093/oz. Oil is flat at US$74.77/barrel.

Financial Update – Jan 22, 2010

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

The wave of selling the last two days appears to be abating this morning, although the major US banks remain weak as President Obama tries to salvage his sagging popularity by tapping into voter anger through curbing profits at financial institutions. The proposed changes would prohibit US banks from owning or making investments in private equity and hedge funds, which is not just a profit centre, but a necessary source of capital to businesses. Earnings at Google topped estimates last night, while General Electric managed to beat forecasts this morning. Although still early, so far the Q4 earnings season has been solid, even amid rather lofty growth expectations. The TSX is up 11 pts. The Dow is down 24 pts.

The Canadian dollar continues to weaken as the uncertainty around Obama’s plans and monetary tightening in China causes capital to flow into the relative safety of greenbacks. The Loonie is down a third of a cent this morning to US$.9478. Bond yields are also lower with the 5-year Canada at 2.48% and the 10-year at 3.39%. Gold is down $6.80 to US$1096.30/oz. Oil is down 71 cents to US$75.37/barrel.

Financial Update – Feb 21, 2010

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Markets rallied throughout the balance of yesterday’s trading, but are selling off again this morning due to the strong economic figures from China. The Chinese economy expanded at a 10.7% clip in the fourth quarter, beating average estimates and pulling the full year figure solidly above the administrations own targets. This has traders worried about further monetary tightening and its effect on demand for raw materials, which is weighing heavily on commodity related sectors this morning. Earnings reports were largely positive, with EBay, Starbucks and Xerox beating average estimates. The index of US leading economic indicators also increased more than expected in December, suggesting the US economy will keep growing at least through the first half of this year. Unemployment claims climbed last week which likely reflected a backlog from the holiday season. The TSX is down 135 pts. The Dow is down 165 pts.

The Loonie is under pressure as the greenback rallies, down a quarter cent to US$.9525 this morning. Bond yields are relatively steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.52% and the 10-year 3.40%. Oil is off $1.35 to US$76.40/barrel. Gold is down $20.50 to US$1092/oz.

Bank of Canada Keeps Lending Rate at 0.25%

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

Bank of Canada stands pat at 0.25%

Last Updated: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 | 9:41 AM ET

CBC News

Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney held the bank’s benchmark lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent on Tuesday. (Richard Lam/Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.25 per cent Tuesday, reiterating its conditional commitment to hold rates steady until the middle of 2010.

Although it held the overnight lending rate steady, the bank did acknowledge that the recovery appears to be proceeding at a better pace than it was anticipating.

“While the outlook for global growth through 2010 and 2011 is somewhat stronger than the bank had projected in its October monetary policy report, the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems,” the bank said in announcing the rate decision.

The Canadian economy grew by a tepid 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, Statistics Canada reported last month. But that “is expected to have picked up further in the fourth quarter,” the bank said.

The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.5 per cent in 2009.

In its statement, the bank repeated its mild concern over the risk that the elevated Canadian dollar presents to the recovery.

“The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar … continues to act as a significant drag on economic activity in Canada,” the bank said.

The bank is set to release its next decision on interest rates on March 2.

Financial Update – Jan 18, 2010

Monday, January 18th, 2010

US markets are closed this morning for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, leaving the wires devoid of any major news items. That’s going to change as the week progresses with earnings season getting into full swing. Major financial firms such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are due to report this week, as are tech heavyweights IBM and Google. Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will almost assuredly keep rates on hold at his policy announcement tomorrow. Strength in financials has led the TSX to a 49 pt gain this morning.

The Canadian dollar is stronger, up 34 bps to US$.9748. Bonds are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.63% and the 10-year 3.49%. Gold is up $3 to US$1133.50/oz. Oil is up 40 cents to US$78.40/barrel.

Financial Update – Jan 15, 2010

Friday, January 15th, 2010

Markets opened lower this morning amid mixed profit reports and increasing concern over Greece’s debt problems. JP Morgan profit quadrupled on higher investment-banking revenue, however missed revenue estimates due to a loss at it’s retail banking division. European Central Bank president Trichet commented that Europe is facing major debt problem, but that no single nation would receive any special treatment. This has led to renewed concerns over Greece’s debt as the country attempts to restructure its finances. Both the Dow and TSX are down 108 pts.

The Loonie is paring recent gains as risk is taken off the table and ploughed into greenbacks. The C$ is off 44 bps to US$.9727 this morning. Bond yields are also lower, with the 5-year Canada down to 2.62% and the 10-year to 3.50%. Gold is down $11.90 to US$1131.10/oz. Oil is off 83 cents to US$78.55/barrel.

Financial Update – Jan 14, 2010

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

North American markets opened higher this morning, but have steadily been running out of steam since the bell. Retail sales in the US declined in December when the market was expecting a slight gain. US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, as expected, while the four week average declined to the lowest level since August 2008. Technology shares are quite strong this morning after business-management software manufacturer SAP said sales and margins beat estimates. Microsoft and Oracle are rising in sympathy, while Intel is up ahead of their quarterly results due after the close. The TSX is down 64 pts. The Dow is up just 8 pts.

The Canadian dollar is on an absolute tear, up another 35 bps this morning to US$.9738. Part of the reason is that commodity currencies are rising in tandem with the Aussie dollar, after a report showed employment in the country climbed by 35,000 last month, raising the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the RBA next month. Bond yields climbed across the curve for the same reason, with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.71% and the 10-year 3.58%. Gold is down $3.70 to US$1133.10/oz. Oil is down 43 cents to US$79.22/barrel.

Financial Update – Jan 13, 2010

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Mixed markets this morning as concerns over Chinese monetary policy still weigh on the commodity-heavy TSX, while US stocks are being buoyed by positive comments from Kraft. The company raised it’s full year guidance, and suggested it will expand with or without its proposed hostile takeover of Cadbury. Shares of Google are weaker after the search engine ended its self-censorship in China, and said it may pull it’s service from the country altogether after allegations of attacks on Gmail accounts of human rights activists. Shares of Chinese rival Baidu.com, the market leader and only other competitor in China, jumped 11% on Nasdaq this morning. The TSX is down 43 pts. The Dow is up 29 pts.

The Canadian dollar is unusually strong in the face of weak commodity prices, climbing a half-cent this morning to US$.9670. Bond yields are unchanged with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.68% and the 10-year 3.56%. Gold is down $5.40 to US$1124.80/oz. Oil is off $1.50 to US$79.31/barrel.

Financial Update – Jan 12, 2010

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

North American markets are taking a step back this morning after Alcoa missed estimates and China moved again to reign in economic stimulus. Alcoa reported higher than expected revenue in the fourth quarter of 2009, however still posted a slight loss when the market was expecting a return to profitability. After raising their 3-month interest rate last week, China moved again by raising reserve requirements for banks as they try to stem the tide of borrowing. This is weighing heavily on commodity prices this morning. Canada posted an unexpected trade deficit in November as imports rose faster than exports, highlighting the effects of a strong Loonie. The TSX is down 66 pts. The Dow is down 34 pts.

The Canadian dollar declined after the trade data was released, however is on the rise again to just a 25 bps loss on the day at US$.9651. Bond yields declined on the news, with the 5-year Canada yield down to 2.67% and the 10-year to 3.56%. Oil is off $1.06 to US$81.46/barrel. Gold is down $3 to US$1148.40/oz.

Financial Update – Jan 11, 2010

Monday, January 11th, 2010

North American markets rallied out of the gate this morning, pushing the TSX over the 12,000 mark for the first time September 2008, but have settled back as inevitable profit taking takes centre stage after a week-long run-up. News that Chinese imports climbed to an all-time high in December stoked the already red hot fire under commodities, lifting shares such as Agrium and Teck Resources to new 52-week highs. Canadian housing starts rose in December for the third consecutive month, which should provide a boost to Q4 GDP numbers. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell today with majors such as Intel and JP Morgan also on tap this week. Analysts are expecting a sharp increase in fourth quarter profits. The TSX is up 13 pts. The Dow is down 5 pts.

The Canadian dollar is off slightly to US$.9687 even as most commodity prices jump. Bond yields declined a touch to 2.69% for the 5-year Canada and 3.60% for the ten. Oil rose to a 15-month high this morning, but has settled back to US$82.39/barrel. Gold is up $15.40 to US$1154.30/oz.