Archive for March, 2010

Financial Update – Mar 30, 2010

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

North American markets opened stronger this morning after reports on both consumer confidence and US home prices were better than expected. The seasonally adjusted figures for residential real estate prices climbed for the eighth straight month in January, while the annual rate of change will almost assuredly break into positive territory in the months to come. Consumer confidence climbed this month as more Americans perceive the employment situation is beginning to improve. Greece managed to raise half of the total funds required to roll over their debt in a 7-year note auction yesterday, but the subsequent 12-year note was undersubscribed.

The TSX is up 19 pts. The Dow is up 12 pts.

The Canadian dollar is slightly higher this morning at US$.9806. Bond yields continue to rise on the positive economic data with the 5-year Canada yield up to 2.93% and the 10-year to 3.59%. Gold is down $7 to US$1103.30/oz. Oil is up 12 cents to US$82.30/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 26, 2010

Friday, March 26th, 2010

Markets climbed at the open this morning as news of an agreement on aid for Greece lifts investors’ appetite for risk. European leaders backed a proposal that would see emergency funding available to Greece should conditions worsen, backed in part by the IMF. The package of loans would carry an interest rate higher than current market rates as an incentive for Greece to return to market financing as soon as possible. Helping matters this morning was a slightly better than expected consumer sentiment index, as well as a rash of analyst upgrades on companies such as Apple and Research in Motion. The TSX is up 60 pts. The Dow is up 62 pts.

The Loonie is paring recent gains, shedding another 40 bps this morning to US$.9718. Bond yields have climbed higher with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.87% and the 10-year 3.57%. Oil is off a quarter to US$80.26/barrel. Gold is up $10 to US$1102.90/oz.

Inflation higher than expected: Carney

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

It appears that the possibility of increased rates is getting closer to becoming a reality – but not likely until mid-summer – if then.

Once again, opinions on this vary widely, but the ‘noise levels’ are increasing.

Bank of Canada boss calls country’s productivity record ‘abysmal’

Last Updated: Wednesday, March 24, 2010 | 3:00 PM ET Comments36Recommend16

CBC News

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney appeared to send signals Wednesday intended to prepare Canadians for an increase in interest rates, spurred by concerns about inflation.

But there was nothing that suggested the bank will move earlier than the widely expected date of midsummer.

‘Core inflation has been slightly firmer than projected,’ Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Inflation has been rising more than the bank expected, Carney acknowledged in a speech to a conference in Ottawa put on by the Canadian Association for Business Economics.

“Core inflation has been slightly firmer than projected,” he said.

The core inflation rate excludes more volatile prices for food and energy and is closely watched by the Bank of Canada in making decisions about whether to increase rates.

The bank lowered its overnight target interest rate last April to a record low 0.25 per cent and said it would more than likely keep it there until July of this year.

At the same time, it predicted the core rate would fall short of its target annual rate of two per cent until the second half of next year.

Core-rate increase higher than predicted

But Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the annualized core rate in February was 2.1 per cent, up from two per cent in January, and ahead of most economists’ predictions of 1.7 per cent.

On March 2, the bank reconfirmed its plans to hold off on any rate increase until the summer, but today Carney warned that this is conditional on the outlook for inflation. The bank will update that outlook in its next monetary policy report, to be released April 22.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, told CBC News there’s nothing in Carney’s speech that suggests the bank is “itching” to raise interest rates.

“We think the bank is still committed to keeping interest rates on hold at least until the middle of this year but then will begin to gradually raise interest rates starting in July,” Guatieri said.

Countering the case for raising rates are concerns about high debt levels affecting Greece, Spain and Portugal, a U.S. housing market that continues to “wobble” and the prospect of the Canadian dollar reaching parity with the U.S. dollar this summer, Guatieri said.

Takes aim at productivity

Carney also took aim at Canadian businesses for failing to invest enough in productivity growth, the measure of the increase in value of goods and services produced by each working Canadian.

Describing Canada’s record as “abysmal,” he predicted that if the trend isn’t reversed, falling productivity could cost every Canadian $30,000 in income over the next decade.

He criticized business for not investing more in new technology and training, and the country for not putting more into in training workers to improve their skills with computers and communications technology.

Carney said Canadians are well educated but not in the areas where they could be most competitive internationally.

He also called for the country to foster more competition in the telecommunications, electricity, and retail industries.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/03/24/carney-rates.html#ixzz0j7gean3r

Financial Update – Mar 24, 2010

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

North American markets are taking a step back this morning after yesterday’s decent rally, mainly due to lingering concerns over Europe’s debt problems. Lack of support for a financial bailout of Greece continues to cloud their future, leading to speculation that they will either default on their debt or be forced to secede from the EU in order to devalue their currency to make themselves more competitive. Meanwhile, the rating on Portugal’s debt was downgraded a notch this morning. Sales of new homes in the US fell to the lowest level on record in February as foreclosures of existing homes sap demand for newly constructed homes, however much of the weakness is being blamed on the poor weather last month. Of note, sales in the West, which was not affected by severe weather, climbed by 21% and posted the biggest year-over-year increase since 2004. Durable goods orders rose in line with forecasts, while the backlog of unfilled orders continues to point to a sustained recovery in the manufacturing sector. The TSX is down 44 pts. The Dow is down 20 pts.

The Canadian dollar is losing steam as currency flows into the safe-haven greenback. The Loonie has shed three-quarters of a penny this morning to US$.9786. Bond yields climbed ahead of BoC Governor Mark Carney’s speech due later today, as the market will look for clues on the timing of future rate increases. The 5-year Canada yields 2.82% and the 10-year 3.51%. Gold is down $13.40 to US$1090.30/oz. Oil is down $1.16 to US$80.75/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 23, 2010

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

North American markets are strengthening this morning amid moderately decent economic news, sending the Dow to a new bull-market high. Heavyweights such as Intel and General Electric are breaking through to highs not seen since the days following Lehman Brothers collapse, while each one of the major Canadian banks have climbed to fall-2007 levels. US existing home sales slid for a third consecutive month in February, however the number of transactions was a bit better than expected. Meanwhile the index of Canadian leading economic indicators climbed for the ninth consecutive month, making this the second-strongest advance in a half century. The TSX is up 41 pts. The Dow is up 21 pts.

The Loonie is slightly higher this morning after slipping the last three days, up 8 bps to US$.9833. Bond yields drifted lower to 2.77% for the 5-year Canada and 3.44% for the ten. Gold is up $3.80 to US$1103.30/oz. Oil is up 15 cents to US$81.75/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 22, 2010

Monday, March 22nd, 2010

Mixed markets in North American this morning as declines in energy and gold weigh on the TSX, while the passage of a trillion dollar healthcare bill south of the border is having a positive effect on US indexes. The obvious winners of a revised healthcare system include the care providers and drug manufacturers who will add some 32 million potential customers to the mix. The insurers face a future of higher government regulation. India’s surprise interest rate hike before the weekend continues to have an effect on commodities as they try to slow down growth amid accelerating inflation. The TSX is down 26 pts. The Dow is up 37 pts.

The Loonie is paring recent gains, slipping 35 bps this morning to US$..9804. Bond yields have climbed at the short end of the curve to 2.80% for the 5-year Canada, while the 10-year remains stuck at 3.47%. Gold is down $10 to US$1097.60/oz. Oil is down a quarter to US$80.43/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 18, 2010

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Canadian equities are mixed this morning after almost three weeks of steady broad-based gains that yesterday pushed the TSX index to a new bull-market high of over 12,100. US indexes are slightly stronger as Dow component Nike released very strong third-quarter results that propelled its share-price to a new all-time high. Economic data out this morning has been solid but unspectacular, with the Philadelphia area manufacturing expanding at the fastest pace this year and in-line with expectations, while the US’ gauge of Leading Economic Indicators climbed for the 11th consecutive month, but at the slowest pace through this expansion. Unemployment claims declined by 5,000 last week. The TSX is off 36 pts. The Dow is up 29 pts.

The Loonie is a quarter-cent weaker at US$.9875 this morning. Bond yields have pulled back just slightly to 2.77% for the 5-year Canada and 3.46% for the ten. Gold is down $3.60 to US$1120.60/oz. Oil is down 61 cents to US$82.32/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 17, 2010

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

The Federal Reserve’s comments yesterday were a touch more dovish than the market had been expecting, suggesting there is no urgency on their part to raise borrowing costs in the near future. This view was reaffirmed this morning by one of their three major inflation indicators, a larger than forecast decrease in Producer Prices last month. Markets rallied in Europe and Asia overnight, and continue to climb here in North America this morning. Canadian wholesale sales blew the doors off economists estimates with a 3% surge in January, the fastest pace in three years. December’s figures were also revised higher. The TSX is up 23 pts. The Dow is up 47 pts.

The Canadian dollar briefly breached the “Gretzky” mark this morning before settling back to US$.9892. Bond yields are steady with the Cdn wholesale data being offset by the benign US inflation figures. The five year bond is yielding 2.78% and the 10-year 3.47%. Gold is $2 higher at US$1124.60/oz. Oil is up 52 cents to US$82.22/barrel.

Financial Update – Mar 16, 2010

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

North American markets rallied through the trading day yesterday, with the TSX erasing a 100 pt deficit to close about flat. The rally has spilled over to this morning’s trading, mainly due to a commitment by the EU to issue emergency funds to Greece should the country need it. The ratings agencies have affirmed Greece’s debt rating as stable, which has lit a fire under the “risk” trade. Commodities are benefiting, as are the Canadian banks which have all been hitting new 52-week highs of late. Canadian factory sales climbed more than expected last month to the highest level since November 2008, while productivity increased at the fastest pace in over a decade. The Federal Reserve meets today and will likely announce no change to their current interest rate policy. The TSX is up 63 pts. The Dow is up 31 pts.

The Canadian dollar snapped an 11 day winning streak yesterday with a small decline, but has jumped another half cent this morning to US$.9854. Bond yields are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.78% and the 10-year 3.47%. Oil is up $2.09 to US$81.89/barrel. Gold has soared $19.30 to US$1124.70/oz.

Financial Update – Mar 15, 2010

Monday, March 15th, 2010

North American markets opened lower this morning due to concerns about tightening monetary policy in India and China. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao over the weekend said he does not believe the Yuan is undervalued, suggesting that allowing the currency to appreciate as a measure to cool economic growth and inflation is not in the cards. Commodities are under pressure this morning. Industrial production in the US unexpectedly climbed in February on the back of computers and communication equipment, pointing to a pick up in business spending. The TSX is down 102 pts. The Dow is down 46 pts.

The Canadian dollar is taking a step back after posting a 20-month high on Friday. The Loonie is off a third of a cent to US$.9788. Bond yields have also declined a touch after climbing for most of last week, with the 5-year Canada bond yielding 2.81% and the 10-year 3.51%. Gold is up $1 to US$1102.70. Oil is off $1.67 to US$79.57/barrel.