March 18th, 2010
Canadian equities are mixed this morning after almost three weeks of steady broad-based gains that yesterday pushed the TSX index to a new bull-market high of over 12,100. US indexes are slightly stronger as Dow component Nike released very strong third-quarter results that propelled its share-price to a new all-time high. Economic data out this morning has been solid but unspectacular, with the Philadelphia area manufacturing expanding at the fastest pace this year and in-line with expectations, while the US’ gauge of Leading Economic Indicators climbed for the 11th consecutive month, but at the slowest pace through this expansion. Unemployment claims declined by 5,000 last week. The TSX is off 36 pts. The Dow is up 29 pts.
The Loonie is a quarter-cent weaker at US$.9875 this morning. Bond yields have pulled back just slightly to 2.77% for the 5-year Canada and 3.46% for the ten. Gold is down $3.60 to US$1120.60/oz. Oil is down 61 cents to US$82.32/barrel.
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March 17th, 2010
The Federal Reserve’s comments yesterday were a touch more dovish than the market had been expecting, suggesting there is no urgency on their part to raise borrowing costs in the near future. This view was reaffirmed this morning by one of their three major inflation indicators, a larger than forecast decrease in Producer Prices last month. Markets rallied in Europe and Asia overnight, and continue to climb here in North America this morning. Canadian wholesale sales blew the doors off economists estimates with a 3% surge in January, the fastest pace in three years. December’s figures were also revised higher. The TSX is up 23 pts. The Dow is up 47 pts.
The Canadian dollar briefly breached the “Gretzky” mark this morning before settling back to US$.9892. Bond yields are steady with the Cdn wholesale data being offset by the benign US inflation figures. The five year bond is yielding 2.78% and the 10-year 3.47%. Gold is $2 higher at US$1124.60/oz. Oil is up 52 cents to US$82.22/barrel.
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March 16th, 2010
North American markets rallied through the trading day yesterday, with the TSX erasing a 100 pt deficit to close about flat. The rally has spilled over to this morning’s trading, mainly due to a commitment by the EU to issue emergency funds to Greece should the country need it. The ratings agencies have affirmed Greece’s debt rating as stable, which has lit a fire under the “risk” trade. Commodities are benefiting, as are the Canadian banks which have all been hitting new 52-week highs of late. Canadian factory sales climbed more than expected last month to the highest level since November 2008, while productivity increased at the fastest pace in over a decade. The Federal Reserve meets today and will likely announce no change to their current interest rate policy. The TSX is up 63 pts. The Dow is up 31 pts.
The Canadian dollar snapped an 11 day winning streak yesterday with a small decline, but has jumped another half cent this morning to US$.9854. Bond yields are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.78% and the 10-year 3.47%. Oil is up $2.09 to US$81.89/barrel. Gold has soared $19.30 to US$1124.70/oz.
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March 15th, 2010
North American markets opened lower this morning due to concerns about tightening monetary policy in India and China. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao over the weekend said he does not believe the Yuan is undervalued, suggesting that allowing the currency to appreciate as a measure to cool economic growth and inflation is not in the cards. Commodities are under pressure this morning. Industrial production in the US unexpectedly climbed in February on the back of computers and communication equipment, pointing to a pick up in business spending. The TSX is down 102 pts. The Dow is down 46 pts.
The Canadian dollar is taking a step back after posting a 20-month high on Friday. The Loonie is off a third of a cent to US$.9788. Bond yields have also declined a touch after climbing for most of last week, with the 5-year Canada bond yielding 2.81% and the 10-year 3.51%. Gold is up $1 to US$1102.70. Oil is off $1.67 to US$79.57/barrel.
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March 12th, 2010
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March 12th, 2010
North American markets are in positive territory again this morning on further signs that the economy is strengthening. Retail sales in the US were higher in February than even the most optimistic estimates, climbing by 0.8% (excluding autos). Here in Canada, employment grew by a net 20,900 positions while the unemployment rate ticked a notch lower to 8.2%. The underlying figures were even stronger with part-time positions declining while full-time employment soared by over 60,000. Shares of Potash are leading the TSX index higher this morning after the company said profits this quarter would exceed most estimates. The TSX is up 17 pts. The Dow is up 20 pts.
The Canadian dollar broke through to a new 52-week high this morning after the employment report and is quickly approaching parity. The Loonie is up three quarters of a cent to US$.9835. Bonds are steady despite the strong economic figures with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.83% and the 10-year 3.52%. Gold is down $1.10 to US$1107.10/oz. Oil is up a nickel to US$82.17/barrel.
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March 11th, 2010
Markets are relatively unchanged this morning in what is turning out to be an unusually quiet week. North American trade data was mixed, with Canada posting a larger than expected trade surplus and the US trade deficit narrowing. Both imports and exports in the US declined, however, indicating an unwelcome slowdown in overall activity. Initial claims for jobless benefits in the US declined last week. Chinese economic data was released overnight and was solidly better than expected with double digit gains in retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. The market is focussed, however, on higher than forecast inflation and the implications for further tightening by the Chinese central bank. The TSX is up 7 pts. The Dow is down 2 pts.
The Loonie looks poised to break a nine-day winning streak as the US trade data ripples through the “risk” trade. It is down 15 bps to US$.9733 this morning. Bond yields declined a touch to 2.82% for the 5-year Canada and 3.53% for the ten. Gold is down $1.90 to US$1106.30/oz. Oil is off 24 cents to US$81.85/barrel.
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March 10th, 2010
North American markets are broadly stronger this morning, mainly due to news overnight from China that February’s year-over-year exports soared by the most in three years, far outpacing what economists had forecast.. Reassuring comments from a former European Commission President are also soothing concerns over Greece’s debt problems, measured by debt default swaps which are becoming increasingly less expensive. Oil climbed after the EIA’s inventories report which showed a smaller than expected increase in crude and a significant drop in gasoline supplies. The TSX is up 67 pts. The Dow is up 28 pts.
The Canadian dollar looks poised to break through recent highs with another 40 basis point gain this morning to US$.9783. Bond yields have climbed across the curve with the 5-year Canada yield up to 2.83% and the 10-year to 3.55%. Gold is up $3.20 to US$1125.50/oz. Oil is up $1.23 to US$82.71/barrel, also coming very close to surpassing its highest level since the fall of ’08.
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March 9th, 2010
Today marks the one-year anniversary of the indexes recent bear-market lows. Traditionally known as the “paper” anniversary, this one is true to form with the US adjusted monetary base (aka. the sum of currency in circulation) having grown a staggering $600 billion over the last year. That said, markets are hardly celebrating this morning with US stocks being led slightly higher by heavyweights AT&T and Verizon, while the TSX is being weighed down by a retreat in the energy sector. Bank of Nova Scotia rounded off earnings season for the Canadian financials by beating average forecasts with 17% profit growth. Speculation is starting to mount on possible dividend hikes for the banks after a two year hiatus. The TSX is down 31 pts. The Dow is up 19 pts.
The Loonie continues to ride the recent winning streak with another 19 bps gain this morning to US$.9750, just half a cent shy of its highest level since July ‘08. Bonds are steady with the 5-year Canada yielding 2..78% and the 10-year 3.51%. Gold is down $5 to US$1119/oz. Oil is off 49 cents to US$81.38/barrel.
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March 9th, 2010
The TSX index opened in positive territory this morning, building on last week’s broad based gains which pushed it to its highest close in over a year and a half. Shares of heavyweight Research in Motion are leading the index higher after being upgraded by an analyst. The energy sector is also strong as crude oil climbs. It should be a fairly quiet week on the data front with Friday’s US retail sales and Canadian employment report being the main points of interest. The TSX is up 17 pts. The Dow is flat.
The Canadian dollar continues to appreciate, rising another 20 bps to US$.9722 this morning. Bonds have stabilized with the 5-year Canada yielding 2.79% and the 10-year 3.49%. Gold is down $13.60 to US$1121.70/oz. Oil is up twenty cents to US$81.70/barrel.
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